How Odds Work
Everything you need to understand American odds, implied probability, vig, payouts, and the difference between what the book thinks and what the data says.
🔄 Interactive Odds Converter
For informational purposes only. Not betting advice.
📋 Common Odds Explained
| Odds | Implied Prob | Payout on $100 | Profit on $100 |
|---|---|---|---|
💰 The Vig (Juice) Explained
Sportsbooks don't offer fair odds. They price both sides so the combined implied probability exceeds 100%. The difference is the vig — the book's built-in margin.
Apex Odds always shows de-vigged (no-vig) probabilities so you see the book's true estimate, not the inflated number.
🎯 Odds vs True Probability
This is the most important concept on Apex Odds. We always show three numbers side by side:
What the sportsbook's odds say, after removing vig. This is the market's estimate.
Pure fact: how often this player has exceeded this line across the season.
Our model's adjusted probability, factoring in opponent, pace, rest, and recent form.
When the model estimate is higher than the book implied, we call that "edge." It means our data suggests the book may be underpricing this outcome.
⚠️ Edge is a model estimate, not a guarantee of any outcome.
📉 Why Odds Move
📐 Key Formulas
probability = 100 ÷ (odds + 100)
probability = |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100)
EV = (probability × profit) − ((1 − probability) × stake)
true_prob = raw_implied ÷ (over_implied + under_implied)